The Bermuda Triangle of France’s 5th Republic

Pierre-Etienne Courrier
28 August 2024
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Macron has lost his high stakes gamble. The results of France’s second round of parliamentary elections of 7 July surprised many and fueled a sentiment of chaos and ungovernability. With domestic and foreign crises rising, ideological and political tensions at all levels, and an ungovernable triangle elected to Parliament, France is facing a critical point of its 5^th Republic that will, one way or another, change the way the country operates and is governed.

France’s Constitutional Development

Under the French 5^th Republic (1958-today), the political system is such that it favors big parties or big political groups. On the right side of the isle, the traditionally most dominant party, today called Les Republicains, is rooted in “Gaullist” traditions. On the left side of the isle, resides the socialist party created in 1969 which, until recent years, had been the dominating party of the left.

The 5^th Republic was born in 1958 when a new Constitution was voted on and after the 3^rd and 4^th Republics had failed to provide the stability needed for the government to function. Under the 4^th Republic and its Constitution, government cabinets were ousted every few months, legislative affairs stagnated, and France became ungovernable. As such, when the new Constitution was written for the 5^th Republic, the powers of the President were significantly increased to prevent deadlocks and ensure a strong executive branch and stability.

In 2008, a constitutional reform was favorably voted on by the Parliament under the direction of President Sarkozy (Les Republicains – right party). This reform gave effect to a new division of institutional powers specifically in favor of the previously weaker Parliament. With time, the powers of the President shrunk, while the role and importance of Parliament, including the opposition parties represented, expanded.

Macron’s Presidency

In 2017, Macron, a neither right nor left centrist candidate shook up the system gaining an almost equal number of votes from both the left and the right. His new political movement significantly hurt the traditionally strong Socialists and Les Republicains. In the parliamentary election, Macron’s party and his alliance won about 350 seats (out of 577), again shaking up the traditional structure of Parliament by taking seats away from the historically strong parties. He also obtained an absolute majority which is considered necessary to govern in France.

Since 2017, Le Pen’s party, the Rassemblement National (far right), went from less than 10 seats in Parliament to 88 in 2022, and LFI (far left) from 17 to 75. This trend towards polarized extremes was not helped by the numerous crises that hit France during Macron’s presidency which included, i.a., the gilet jaune (yellow vest protests), COVID, the retirement age crisis, the war in Ukraine, the severed relationship with the Sahel region, etc.

In 2022, while reelected to the Presidency, Macron lost his absolute majority in Parliament and had to face significant opposition from the far left and the far right.

Through the Prime Minister, Macron bypassed Parliament 23 times in 18 months (second most in history) to legislate by using the constitutionally allowed 49:3 rule. Pursuant to this rule, the Prime Minister can suspend debate on a bill and consider it adopted unless a vote of no confidence is introduced and favorably voted on against the ruling government. For many, its recurrent and continued use was a snub to the democratic process on the part of the presidential camp. Macron’s unpopularity grew as a result.

The 2024 Elections

Fast forward to the European elections in June 2024 where Macron suffered a heavy loss. The far right got 1/3 of the votes, while his own group only obtained 15 percent. The President, against the advice of his former and current Prime Ministers Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, dissolved the lower house of Parliament and called for snap elections one month later in July 2024.

Within the first few days after Macron’s announcement, three parties on the left joined forces around the LFI (far left), called the New Popular Front. LFI has been extremely divisive in France and according to the New York Times, its leader, Melenchon, is disliked by 73% of French people. On the right, Les Republicains also struggled with their own leader (Eric Ciotti) who created an alliance with Le Pen’s far right 48 hours after the dissolution of Parliament and without any consultations with the rest of the party’s leadership.

The left alliance (led by LFI) received the most seats (182) as a group. Macron’s group was second (168), a loss of 60 seats, and Le Pen’s far right plus some of the Les Republicains who joined them was third (143). Despite coming in third place however, the far right, as an individual party, received the most seats.

These results establish a triangular mess with no real majority which has left the country with unanswerable questions amid an unprecedented distribution of seats.

Who will govern France?

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal resigned following the election, although Macron asked him to stay until a new government was formed. The Left, assuming they would govern due to their number of seats, struggled for weeks to agree on the name of a prime minister and their choice was ultimately rejected by Macron on 26 August citing a sure vote of no confidence.

Although Macron continues to meet with all party leaders and possibly tried to broker an alliance between Les Republicains (right) and his own group, this too has not been successful and would face a sure vote of no confidence. Thus, it appears that any coalition would dissatisfy the rest of the lower house and lead to a vote of no confidence, just like during the 4^th Republic.

In the absence of an absolute majority, any parties that have joined forces to remain in (or gain) power do not seem to have done so for ideological reasons. It raises serious doubts as to whether any alliance would last and whether they could pass any laws in Parliament without resorting to the 49:3 rule. Furthermore, numerous parties/groups have stated they would refuse to negotiate with one another.

After dissolving Parliament, Macron finds himself isolated including from his own party. His position as President of the Republic is weakened. With an enfeebled executive branch, and a deadlocked Parliament filled with opposition, France has seemingly reversed back to the state of crisis and ungovernability of the 4^th Republic. The ramifications of this current political situation will be momentous for the fate of the current 5^th Republic.